Discusses the above objective and "VR can play, what kind of flowers" and "VR on the territory of what was happening," two questions, then answer the three questions below: how VR industry will bring change? VR time who will be the winners? How will changes in a VR world wonderful?
What VR brings to the industry to change? 1, VR glasses will be ubiquitous, who could enter the field
There is no doubt that people enter virtual reality VR world, wearing VR glasses on your head is a super portal. While the future may contact lenses and chip implantation of external equipment can be replaced, but at least 35 years VR experience without wearing glasses.
Therefore, VR glasses will become an army of battle. Known entrants, including foreign, Google, Microsoft, cool la (Oculus), Samsung, Sony, HTC, and storm, Ant, sky (Laputa Hero). In addition, entering the market such as Apple, millet, as is almost inevitable.
Future VR dipped two cents retailers might have converged here. From mobile and wearable devices to television sets, from videos to Web sites, online ticketing platform to the cinema line, from big entertainment companies, sports companies to game companies, from search firms, e-commerce platform to software companies and chip companies, are likely to be attempts to VR glasses market. Of course, there will be all kinds of independent entrepreneurial company pegged the market, set sail from here.
Final winners will be what no one can predict, but they must have two basic conditions: first, the powerful technical and material capabilities and, secondly, powerful content creation and acquisition capacity. Ted Baker iPhone 5S case
2, at least initially, VR glasses will be involved in content creation
And mobile is different, no video, mobile phones can also be used to probe into the call letters, and VR glasses leaving the VR is a lump on the head of the plastics.
Therefore, VR optician before with all the hardware--it is the most different from the moment gave birth to (note that is not a moment of birth) must start to think about things.
This also on destined to has at least in VR glasses of development early, most hardware business will will through various form directly participation VR content of making, some may will established himself of content company, from television industry large dug angle; some may will strategy investment or acquisition existing of television and game content company and to they injected some VR of gene, or directly strategy investment or acquisition emerging of focused VR content of company; also some may will select with existing of television and game giant established joint venture company, Joint development of content providers to create VR.
Future VR glasses optician sales generally have two modes. "The 1.0 model" is that you spend hundreds of Yuan to thousands of Yuan to buy a VR glasses, which already binds one or several VR content distribution platform, there could be dozens of VR short film, there will be more in the future, most of the content is free and will charge some content, your home experience. "2.0 mode" should be a huge movie IP on a VR glasses you can see, you can choose to spend several thousands of dollars to buy a VR glasses free 10-20 VR movies, including this, or you can choose to spend thousands of Yuan to buy a "ticket derivatives + movies + travel + fan activities" packages and free glasses. "2.0" is better than "1.0" is more powerful, the future "1.0" and "2.0" will co-exist, but "2.0" ratio will continue to rise.
I believe that the future for consumers to buy glasses than buy because of the glasses. As a result, primary stage in development of VR, VR glasses for cultivating the market and industry competition will directly participate in the VR content production. But soon they will find that they do neither practical nor economical, so there would be one or two VR shooting industry-wide standards and a few highly integrated VR content distribution platform. The optician's grip on the exclusive content will be more reflected in the first "VR window" exclusive right and on and offline interactive integrated marketing possibilities, rather than on a permanent monopoly over this content. The end of the day, wearing glasses on the other customers on the other platforms should also be able to see this "exclusive works", similar to today's Wanda cinema's relationship with Wanda invest in movies.
3, VR causes the content industry reshuffle
Both in Hollywood and in China, the film company the market pattern has the dust settled, the top five companies dominate over 50% at the box office it is necessary.
VR pull people back to the same starting line--because, the world, and to this day, and wood, made VR movies, and successfully. In the early development of VR, everyone is Spielberg.
VR movie is a 360-degree movie, it is the axis of the audience's eyes, along each of the viewer's gaze to advance the story.
This is how big the challenges, opportunities and temptations.
VR movie industry has brought many new topics--
For example, tell the story, how to write scripts? Traditional 2D, 3D movies, no matter how the structure of jumping, are linear, everyone watching the same movie in 20 minutes and 30 seconds to see the same set of circumstances and scenarios. VR film completely breaks the linear. Viewers decide for themselves who will follow who walked into the room was above the trees, look behind the walls and look at, is to turn left or turn right at the crossroads. As a film, a person reading may take 20 minutes, a person reading may take an hour. (Such as the aforementioned Oculus production lost viewers read the time from 3 and a half minutes to 10 minutes. ) How to tell this story when, how to write scripts? A movie do you need multiple parallel story? These parallel stories of how connected? How do you guide the audience to see the story this way and not in the direction of the story, sound, props are used up? We want to give the audience a lot of options, choices and how to strike a balance between efficiency, autonomy and preset? If the audience is not listening to you and guide you want to forcibly pull him back? Could give viewers a choice of where to look in the movie scene, can also play choice roles in the story, and promoting the process of story of what he saw? Most important, how to ensure that VR movie will still be able to tell the moving story steal the show without technology? All of these today are not the answer, and require a lot of experimentation and trial and error. A lot of people may not know, born from the first movie camera into the first real film birth interval for more than 20 years, I believe that the birth of a VR long movies should not need such a long time.
For example, cut scenes and voice switch do? We watch the movie not because of cut scenes and feel uncomfortable, but if you scene, scene switch may feel dizzy. You of course can switch scenes before the pop scene, wait until the switch is done and brought back in, but it went in and out will make the whole experience seem broken? Perhaps, the most suitable VR movies of those scenes have changed not only a linear nature, but does not require repeated switching of the story (for example: a group of people adrift at sea, plane crash remain isolated, Castle in murder, Somalia street battles on the streets, and so on), rather than as of the inception of the kind frequently switching residual film time and space to play. In terms of sound, how to ensure that the sound go with the eye, makes the movie sound more "clever"? Such as, you exposure Yu movie in the a noise of night, this when you see stage, heard of is stage Shang of singing; see around of people, heard of is they of noise; see card seat in of people, can heard they pulled with voice of dialogue; male leads out received phone, you see he of back, on can heard he in phone in magnetic of voice.
For example, directors, camera how to hide? 360 degree scene how to clip? In traditional 2D and 3D films, it was never a problem. Once inside the VR movies, the problem immediately obvious. Couldn't let the audience was immersed in God goddess of passionate touching or killer appeared suddenly in the depths of terror and came back seeing Director camera with intercom beside the order field workers also have a box lunch. In addition, the clip is also a problem--how to make Director on a 2D monitor clip out 360-degree scenes?
For example, how measured, temperately for sensory stimulation. When you look at film, plot a terrorist, and you see the audience or the window of the herds, immediately it can be soothing. But in VR movie times, you're in the scene, if you suddenly collapsed in the closet corpse or side suddenly leap up a fearsome monster, bad heart is not necessarily to say "scared baby" can be easily pacified, fix will kill. Therefore, how to mobilize the sensory feelings and maintain a balance between respect for the physiological limits, will be is the filmmaker's new project, prior to the establishment of global norms and will cause a wave of controversy.
The answer to all of these new topics were not readily available, Hua Yiguang lines Boehner huace film and television Giants there is no readily available resources to rely on. Therefore, VR Studios lot size almost inevitable. Most of them will fail, few will be invested or integration, but there will be very few rapid development through this VR trend stands out, a new generation of video gaming flagship, the industry reshuffle.
4, VR movies and VR games will be increasingly blurred
That viewers in the movie scenario, the remaining question is how much movies can provide them with characters and scenes in the movie and story interaction space. If viewers can feel, you can also at any time and the interaction of the characters in the movie, the movie and game have actually started to close; if he can influence trends and processes of the story in the film, it has no essential difference with the game. A viewer can interact with and affect the process of story film is essentially a movie structure and dramatic game. In addition to movies and games in the future, are likely to be born "play movie" (also called "immersion movie") and "movie games" (also called "narrative games"), their only difference is that the audience for the story process changes. A good game movie director must be familiar with game logic in turn a good film director must be proficient in the language of the film of the game.
Are advances in technology for movie mashups and integration with the game possible. With image, movement and facial capture technology on the rise, a computer can simulate starred in most of the character actor, thereby reducing their amount of physical performance in the film. It also provided the possibility for interaction between audience and actor. In fact, a VR movie may be due to the existence of parallel stories or total audience requires lead actor's performance seemed a lot more, but they really need a physical part of the show is likely to drop, not rise. Therefore, the Director will have more work in the future is not in the field, but in the engine room.
VR movies of the game also means the future of the studios and game companies will become more and more blurred. VR movies and VR games would like to spend thousands as a natural fusion of the bone, both sides are likely to become each other's billboards. All VR Studios game talent, all game companies rolling out IP of the game also puts a VR film clips as a marketing standard. Excellent studios and game companies will have more reason to come together to try all kinds of cooperation and grafting, learn from each other, penetration, synergies and grow together in marriage.
5, VR movies is a paradise for derivatives sales
VR movies, you can talk to the characters (can of course be cartoon) living in the same world, they are all around you, is almost palpable. You can look into their eyes, laughter, games, flirting, which naturally for derivatives sales turned up a super powerful engine. You don't even have to leave the scene in the future, you can order directly in the scene, the movie took off his glasses, your derivative has been sent to your hand.
Here by said of derivative products never only limited to toy, and t-, and beverage such of simple products, it can is a very rich design sense of coat, and a paragraph from Milan Furniture exhibition of sofa, and a super cool dazzle of digital products (such as next generation can directly took VR of phone), also can is a car dream sports car, and a home b grid shine of restaurant, and even a situated of Villa model room. These implants in movies are just advertising "derivatives" suddenly came to life, vividly appear in front of you, 360-degree show has turned into a close encounter.
6, VR movie theater will face unprecedented challenges of the times
If the entrance is a head-mounted VR movie glasses, so you still need to go to the cinema to watch VR movies did become an issue.
VR movie times, cinema is going through minor repairs to meet market demand, to sit watching the big screen would be meaningless, the overall design of the cinema can only knock. The future mainstream form of cinema will be remains to be defined, perhaps it will be a "normal video Hall + social viewing rooms + immersive VR viewing space + transparent derivatives experience" some combination of. This intrusive film-space may be 2 m x 2 m "packet", or it may be 50 m x 50 m "field" walls with transparent or translucent glass. When you come to the cinema, sees is not a row of a head wearing VR glasses in the cinema audience, but people in a transparent room, wearing a helmet, to make all kinds of weird movements and facial expressions.
I believe that even in a VR movie times, clear of the normal value will continue to exist, there will be a traditional 2D film continue on; instead, the 3D movie is likely to be a transitional product, will soon be replaced by VR.
Suggested that the VR-era cinema will become a room with extraordinary computing power. You can be wearing his glasses in the past, computers provided by the cinema, experience a variety of thrilling VR movies. I think this sounds a bit like ten years ago, Internet cafes, students into the science fiction film nostalgia. All future computing power must be in heaven, in the cloud. You go to the movies with only three possible causes: a) for social networking; b) with a view to better VR experience; c) this movie only movies.
For the cinema, a) is the Gospel, b) requires active thinking and exploration, and c) are the biggest uncertainties. This is because--
7, video sites have the best chance of a VR content distribution platform
VR movie might help in the short term to the cinema. Cinema can release a large areas at the same time create a place in the cinema experience, in this experience, the viewer wearing VR glasses placed in large scenes, a fragment of experience large. Took off his glasses turn you can buy what you had just seen in the scene, then you can take it into the next Hall 5th to enjoy the complete set of 2D or 3D movies.
But this is clearly a VR the early stages of development, it is not the intention. Future VR VR movies of the mainstream must be complete and independent of the film, rather than 2D, 3D movie trailer. iPhone 5 case Ted Baker
VR movie era-oriented even the cinema was modified, completed the upgrade, an indespensible question is: the VR movies, the main distribution channel of the future must also be like today's 2D and 3D films must be the cinema? If the cinema itself is marginal, traditional film distributors and theater companies have meaning?
We imagine, if the bandwidth and computing power are not a problem (they will not be a problem), and glasses in the hands of viewers, the film in the hands of hardware makers and content providers, connecting the audience and also need?
But one is paid, a broadcast platform (including bandwidth, computing power, and behind CDN network, etc). Therefore, the leading video site in VR today (at least in film and television content, and even games in the future) release has a natural advantage. If they are then combined with online ticketing platform, replace existing film distributors and cinema company is almost inevitable. The time VR movie to line line leaving a window of the House of Commons is like a window for yangcheng Lake hairy crabs as ridiculous.
Therefore, future VR movie only truly indispensable hardware on industrial chain business + content + playback and payments platform, others are optional. In this kind of industry in the chain, who own a large number of users, awarded research afford IP right hand, left hand there are payment instruments video platforms, both hardware experience and content resources, film and game two swords in one ecological players apparently will hold all the ACEs. In addition, there will be some focus on VR content distribution and playback platform is breaking out of its cocoon, try to challenge with VR as a breakthrough expansion video and film and television issuance pattern. In such an era if hand without VR hardware, VR and VR release platform that at least one of the three cards, will be hard to appear in the formula affecting the entertainment industry.
On traditional cinema for, to wants to in VR movie this wave wave in the not was edge of, or found can let audience even home has glasses also willing with glasses to Theater watch of reason (such as only in cinema see to experience to a species special effect or to scene lower single finished Hou immediately got derivative products), or through integration big then into VR movie of investment and making ensure at least has part VR movie only cinema to see, or concentrated show and watch this pieces thing will increasingly no market. This not the same as sporting events and concerts, because these were all "live" concept, while you wear a helmet can get close to the scene of the feeling, but you are not on site. But the movie was different, cinema is not a scene of the film, the film's real "live" in VR movie scene.
VR time who will be the winners?
Today, although the Giants and some VC, PE has started in the VR on the direction of interest, but overall--whether it's the VR industry technology, products or contents, applications--are still in the "first year of Pre-" in the early stages.
As 2016 "first year of VR" coming, 2016-18 VR industry will enter a "rapid seeding" first stage. This during, most leading of hardware company, and video website and content company will through new company established, and split, and joint venture, and war voted, and merger, way in VR field began layout, focused Yu VR glasses, and VR camera, and VR content making and VR content issued of venture enterprise will intensive birth, capital (especially early capital) also will began close concern this industry in of investment opportunities. Some financial investors and industry players, and set up special VR industry Fund, layout VR industry chain. Expected to be completed in 2016, the global VR video will reach hundreds of 2017-18 with the technological progress of head-mounted glasses (especially in terms of weight and comfort) may have first VR based on strong IP long film was born in 2016-17, large-scale VR games will be launched, and began to lead the game industry trends in 2017, also appear sold million-volume VR glasses.
2018-2020 VR hardware and content companies to complete initial blending, formation of hard and soft one VR of eco-camp, focus on VR content distribution across the camp release platforms beginning Ni Duan. Probably only VR glasses and won't set foot in VR content company VR content-focused independent production company will have many, but platform big content companies will also seek to VR hardware control. This is because the future of markets and industries will require large player in hardware full synergy between content and interactive, on-demand free revenue model distribution capacity to commercial interests. This phase of the core business model is two, or to drive hardware sales, either in a hardware drive content sales. Foreign countries represented by Oculus, Apple, Samsung, home TV plus, millet represented the hardware companies are likely to be important driver of the entertainment industry, an influential VR movie product name appears in the hardware business. In addition, with the VR content evolves, a large scale VR advertising platform will begin to appear.
2020-2022, the VR industry standards established, cross-distribution platform of the camp was in the ascendant today replaced the film distribution company, VR scenes within marketing and sales will gradually scale, new e-commerce platform based on VR content will be born. In this phase, the VR will be more broadly applied to other areas of entertainment.
Though it has only just begun, win the boisterous scene already happening, but like all other industries, ultimately winning some for only a few. In addition to the Oculus is somewhat a feeling of riding the dust away, other players were still on the same starting line.
For the winner who could become a future VR industry, my overall feeling is:
All you want to insert the cell phone, need PC match, need to handle VR glasses are a transitional product, because they are contrary to human nature. Future VR glasses must be integrated, direct and cloud content, applications and computing capabilities. Clarity, comfort and content compatibility degree is likely to decide the fate of VR glasses manufacturer. While chip technology may eventually let us head-mounted device is no longer needed, but until that day, I see no end to wear glasses to replace the phone's possibilities. It can interact with phone perfect, but this should not be the way to put the phone into his body.
Hardware makers and content providers will be from a different point of view, into each other's territory, will end up more than marriage of hard and soft, hard and soft even one of the "Sony Colombia" or "Colombia Sony." Of course, any creative industry cannot be a monopoly, so VR content areas while there will be giant, but there will be an endless stream of micro, small head and head in. In contrast, the hardware business after 3-5 years of alliances, will ultimately be integrated, eventually leaving players on this map should not be better than today's mobile phone manufacturers and more.
With the blurring of VR movies and VR games, movies and gaming business models of the future will increasingly converge. Buy equipment, buy game items, buying experience is likely to be phased out movie tickets to see chip and advertising ideas is really promising "membership fee + shopping + offline consumption" a powerful combination. Movies game than game film more likely to go through.
In the era of VR, Super IP is equally important, if not more important. The reason is simple: If you are a content provider, you have to take the risk of new technology going to market, and should try to reduce the risk of the content itself. Therefore, hand Super IP content companies and hardware companies to work with them than not these super IP players will have the chance to taste the fruits of the VR.
And "VR former" era, VR era is an era favoring ecological enterprises. Hard and soft body and eight synergistic ecological competition advantage of enterprises in the era of VR will be more evident than in the past.
While all exploration are to be encouraged, but the evils of capital and capitalists will still prefer the founders have the right genes, subversive or mode of technology, commercialization potential paths clear, VR has a certain scale company best. Such companies can be independent startups or big company spin-off of VR business platform. The latter even more opportunities for rapid development.
How will changes in a VR world wonderful?
15 years ago, when AOL, China.com was in the ascendant, when no one would have thought that after 15 years today, this world would be like. Similarly, no matter how much we try to drill down to VR industry, facing ten years, 15 years later, we must be the bottom view of the world.
Compared with the forecasts, we have more imagination. Compared with the answers, we have more problems. I would like to use the following questions as the end of this article. Answered that they should not take 15 years time.
After 3-5 all cameras and mobile phones can shoot VR?
When head-mounted glasses can be as light as a butterfly's wings? Future watch VR content definitely needs to wear glasses? We will put on a pair of contact lenses or affixed on the same chip can complete our senses?
Whether people will live in the future in the real and virtual worlds, with multiple identities, and walk to switch back and forth between them?
In the virtual world, whether the brain--not the body-will dominate? As long as you want (you may need to pay a small fee, of course), all physical limits can break everyone leaped from the ground to jump to the top of the Eiffel Tower or without carrying oxygen tanks in hundreds of meters deep undersea free roam?
When you see me in the future with a VR movie when we are watching a movie?
Future movies will be more social or alone? VR will become more human?
In addition to the entertainment of the future, VR Sports, medical, pension, education, construction, military and other fields, which burst also was born brain?
There is no doubt that VR can make the feeling of the people. This will increase the understanding and goodwill of the world?
By the way, the whole written VR, only topics with "La", no special reason, is that "La" four words really cool.
If you don't agree, wearing VR glasses you, talk to us face to face?
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